Suckout King
05-18-2006, 03:32 AM
I am curious to know what you think are the best ways of utilising free bets. I know some people inclined to bonus whore like to bet each way on the same outcome. To me this seems to be against the spirit in which the offer was made and I do not entirely approve of this. Sometimes this will be against bonus policy and you will not get paid anyway
Also it is not maximising the expected value that can be acheived. Whilst it is true that you would almost certainly win by this approach - except where a third outcome happens OR you get amounts withheld for bonus abuse - the main advantage would be the low level of variance involved. The EV would be no less if you picked two completely seperate events.
If you are trying to cumulate a bankroll on a site rather than just place a bet then going for a 2nd event that was likely IF the first bet failed. If you bet on a horse that would do well in good weather then betting on a different race at the same venue that would do well in poor weather MIGHT lower the varience for the bet.
If you make ANY sort of informed choice you would have AT LEAST the same EV by placing bets on different events and they could be a lot higher. There is still the choice between bankroll building bets and big paydays.
If you bet on a couple of outcomes at near evens then you have really good chances of finishing up ahead (if allowed with the free bet to go for something near evens).
You could have the two bets for the same event but not 100% related outcomes. If you thought Arsenal would beat Barca but it would be a low scoring game then you could bet on a low scoring game and use the free bet on Arsenal.
Anyway what do you think?
Also it is not maximising the expected value that can be acheived. Whilst it is true that you would almost certainly win by this approach - except where a third outcome happens OR you get amounts withheld for bonus abuse - the main advantage would be the low level of variance involved. The EV would be no less if you picked two completely seperate events.
If you are trying to cumulate a bankroll on a site rather than just place a bet then going for a 2nd event that was likely IF the first bet failed. If you bet on a horse that would do well in good weather then betting on a different race at the same venue that would do well in poor weather MIGHT lower the varience for the bet.
If you make ANY sort of informed choice you would have AT LEAST the same EV by placing bets on different events and they could be a lot higher. There is still the choice between bankroll building bets and big paydays.
If you bet on a couple of outcomes at near evens then you have really good chances of finishing up ahead (if allowed with the free bet to go for something near evens).
You could have the two bets for the same event but not 100% related outcomes. If you thought Arsenal would beat Barca but it would be a low scoring game then you could bet on a low scoring game and use the free bet on Arsenal.
Anyway what do you think?