Suckout King
10-30-2006, 12:48 PM
Pot Odds is one of those concepts that many people either give too much attention to or too little. Having a good understanding for pot odds will enhance your results and profitability but it is also not as fundimental a topic as some people would make it out to be.
Firstly I should say that in limit poker (any form) pot odds is often more important than in Pot limit and NO limit games. These days NL Holdem is the dominant game and the focus of these articles will be geared to that. Still you will see that some of the examples I give will often be for limit poker. The reason for this is that there are fewer variables so pot odds is easier to explain.
How to calculate pot odds.
Calculating pot odds is something that not everyone will be able to do fully in a tournament situation. It often helps to memorise the odds in certain situations and this will make your job much easier. Still it is worth looking at.
Say you hold 2 and 3 of hearts on a board of 6h8hkd. Your opponent has Ace of Clubs and King of diamonds and goes all in for 400 chips. There is 100 in the pot already and you have 2000 chips. Do you have pot odds to call?
If you get a flush you will generally win the hand. You will get a flush when you get a heart on the turn or the river. If you call you will get to see both the turn AND the river. There are 9 hearts in the pack and 45 cards that are unknown (52-3 cards on the flop - your hand - your opponents hand).
so 9/45 is your chance of getting a flush on the turn
your chances of getting a flush are:-
9/45+
(45-9)/45* (this is when you dont get a heart on the turn)
9/44 (with the turn being shown there is 1 fewer unknown card in
the pack)
you will see this comes to .36363636 this is the same as 36%.
The quick and clever ones amongst you will realise that this not entirely accurate. If you get the king of hearts on the turn you have a flush but you will lose if his three of a kind improves to a full house. Similarly you could get runner runner cards either for a straight or for 2 pair or trips. Still these are fairly remote possibilities.
I recommend using a poker odds calculator and playing about with it. This will give you a sense of what the true odds are for a variety of common situations. The more experienced you get the more it is in your interests to learn these. If you are a tournament player then learning and remembering how cards rate against each other (ak v 56s etc) is well worth the effort.
OK I have shown your a basic odds calculation and recommended that you memorise some common odds senarios (catching a flush, straight and preflop percentages). Here is how you calculate the number of "outs" that you have
Work out all the cards that will win the hand for you. Add them together. So if your opponent has 2h2c and you hold ahkh then on a board of Qh10h6s8d
You are going to win with:-
an ace or a king (6 cards ) giving you a higher pair
a heart (8 cards as the 2h is taken) giving you a flush
or a jack (4 cards) giving you a straight
Thats (6+6+4)=15 outs. You would win this hand 16/44 times.
Ok the problem with the following is that in the real world you will rarely know what your opponents cards are. Because of this you have to add to the number of "unknown" cards so that it would be dividing your outs by 47 on the flop and 46 on the turn. Sometimes you can accurately read what one or both of your opponents cards are. When this is the case you can adjust the number of unknown cards. When it is just an educated guess though you need to factor in an error margin.
As well as outs there are what are known as "kill" cards. Say you have 7c8c and the flop is 5d6d2s. Lets say you know your opponent has two diamonds (adkd). Whilst you have outs for a straight and outs for a pair you also have kill cards. If an ace or a king comes then you will only win the hand if you get a straight. Similarly if a diamond comes then its curtains. A diamond would be a "kill" card and if an ace or a king came it would reduce your outs. I think of these as "semi kill" cards.
In this case you would win the hand on the following percentages
6/45 (odds of getting a straight that isnt also a flush for your opponent) * (44-9)/44
(45-9 is the number of cards that WONT give your opponent a flush on the river)
+
6/45 (odds of getting a pair)*(44-9-6)/44 (this is the chance of your opponent NOT gettting a flush or a higher pair)
+
6/45 (your opponent getting a pair) *(6/44 (you getting a straight)
+
17/45 (cards that do not give your opponent a straight and are not covered above) *
12/44 (chances of you getting 1 pair or a straight)
Note that a diamond on the flop is a kill card.
This comes to .106+.088+.018+.103= .315 or 31.5% AFTER rounding. Clearly you would not do this in a game but thats why its worth being able to do rough calculations and also why its worth remembering odds tables etc.
Why odds are often NOT the only factor
So often odds are not the only factor in a hand. Reads are also important as are implied odds, advertising plays and bluffing oppertunities. All these areas will be explained below.
Reads
Many of you who do not like maths will have a bit of a sore head by now. You can relax now though in the knowledge that much of the maths is over. Some people say that NL holdem is all about odds but its really all about reads.
Example:-
If you hold ackc on a flop of 4c4d5c there is 400 in the pot and your opponent goes all in for 700 chips (you have him covered easily). Should you call? What are your pot odds? It is clear that you need more information before it would be possible to calculate pot odds. The real question you need to ask is "what does he have?". If he has 44 then you have ZERO odds for a call, if he has 55 you have terrible odds for a call but if he has 6h7h then you have GREAT odds for a call. Reads are far more important here than odds. You will find yourself sometimes doing percentage plays ie (50% of the time he has x, 20%y and 30%z) and then tie these into pot odds. It is however clear that this situation is more about reads and experience than actually about pot odds.
Another example of a percentage play is say your opponent goes all in in the small blind for 1000 and the blinds are 200 and 400. It is costing you 600 to call. You have 64os should you call? If you take the range of hands he will make this play on and then look at your chances you might well see that you can expect to be arround 30-40% to win the hand depending on his holdings. If he has 66 or a higher pair your odds will be less but overall (say he has k5) you will often be arround a 37% chance to win the hand with a few split pots there. You will see that you need at least 30% to get paid off (600/2000) and you will see that you probably have that so you have odds for a call. This doesnt mean you should neccisarily call. You might get better oppertunities later if you fold but a call has clear odds to justify it.
When you and your opponent are not all in
The other situations deal with the position that your opponent and yourself are not all in. This is actually the most common situation you will find yourself in. Say you have ax of hearts and the board is 2 hearts and a spade. Someone bets 200 into a pot of 250. Do you have "pot" odds to call. You have 1500 chips as does everyone else. Well you do not have simple pot odds to call IF you READ your opponent as having a pair. Say you will be ahead on the turn if you get either an ace (3 cards) or a heart (9 cards). You have 12/47 (you dont know what he has so you cannot use 45). Anyway you will see that you do not have simple pot odds.
Does that mean you should fold here? The answer is not neccisarily. If you get a heart on the turn you and you bet and get called then as well as the 250 and your opponents 200 you are winning what you get for the extra bet. Similarly if the action goes...
bet 200 on flop (you call everyone else fold)
turn 9s
bet 200 (you call)
river is a heart
then you will get extra cash for a bet
there is also the chance that he will just check the turn.
With implied odds much depends of your read on your opponents. There are some people who will not call ANY bet if the turn is a heart here. There are others who will call on top pair for all there chips. You have much better implied odds against the passive player who calls and the aggressive player who bets here than you do against the person who checks and folds.
As well as that there is also the possibility that you can bluff your way out of the hand if you do not hit. This can be a risky play because it is done so often that people are often sharp to it but it still needs to be mentioned. This can make some calls where you do not have implied or normal pot odds worth while. This can be particularly true when you have a flush draw on and there is a straight draw on the board. If you read your opponent as tight and put him on top pair then you can win when you catch your flush or when a straight appears on as you can REPRESENT the straight as well.
Remember that your odds are different when you bet than when you call because there is a chance that your opponent will fold. If you bet on something that you will win 1 in three (a flush draw) and get called you will win 1 in 3 but you will also win the times that your opponent folds their middle pair or top pair with a poor kicker. What this means is that you might win 400 chips 40% of the time and the 60% you get called you might win 2000 chips one time in three.
Firstly I should say that in limit poker (any form) pot odds is often more important than in Pot limit and NO limit games. These days NL Holdem is the dominant game and the focus of these articles will be geared to that. Still you will see that some of the examples I give will often be for limit poker. The reason for this is that there are fewer variables so pot odds is easier to explain.
How to calculate pot odds.
Calculating pot odds is something that not everyone will be able to do fully in a tournament situation. It often helps to memorise the odds in certain situations and this will make your job much easier. Still it is worth looking at.
Say you hold 2 and 3 of hearts on a board of 6h8hkd. Your opponent has Ace of Clubs and King of diamonds and goes all in for 400 chips. There is 100 in the pot already and you have 2000 chips. Do you have pot odds to call?
If you get a flush you will generally win the hand. You will get a flush when you get a heart on the turn or the river. If you call you will get to see both the turn AND the river. There are 9 hearts in the pack and 45 cards that are unknown (52-3 cards on the flop - your hand - your opponents hand).
so 9/45 is your chance of getting a flush on the turn
your chances of getting a flush are:-
9/45+
(45-9)/45* (this is when you dont get a heart on the turn)
9/44 (with the turn being shown there is 1 fewer unknown card in
the pack)
you will see this comes to .36363636 this is the same as 36%.
The quick and clever ones amongst you will realise that this not entirely accurate. If you get the king of hearts on the turn you have a flush but you will lose if his three of a kind improves to a full house. Similarly you could get runner runner cards either for a straight or for 2 pair or trips. Still these are fairly remote possibilities.
I recommend using a poker odds calculator and playing about with it. This will give you a sense of what the true odds are for a variety of common situations. The more experienced you get the more it is in your interests to learn these. If you are a tournament player then learning and remembering how cards rate against each other (ak v 56s etc) is well worth the effort.
OK I have shown your a basic odds calculation and recommended that you memorise some common odds senarios (catching a flush, straight and preflop percentages). Here is how you calculate the number of "outs" that you have
Work out all the cards that will win the hand for you. Add them together. So if your opponent has 2h2c and you hold ahkh then on a board of Qh10h6s8d
You are going to win with:-
an ace or a king (6 cards ) giving you a higher pair
a heart (8 cards as the 2h is taken) giving you a flush
or a jack (4 cards) giving you a straight
Thats (6+6+4)=15 outs. You would win this hand 16/44 times.
Ok the problem with the following is that in the real world you will rarely know what your opponents cards are. Because of this you have to add to the number of "unknown" cards so that it would be dividing your outs by 47 on the flop and 46 on the turn. Sometimes you can accurately read what one or both of your opponents cards are. When this is the case you can adjust the number of unknown cards. When it is just an educated guess though you need to factor in an error margin.
As well as outs there are what are known as "kill" cards. Say you have 7c8c and the flop is 5d6d2s. Lets say you know your opponent has two diamonds (adkd). Whilst you have outs for a straight and outs for a pair you also have kill cards. If an ace or a king comes then you will only win the hand if you get a straight. Similarly if a diamond comes then its curtains. A diamond would be a "kill" card and if an ace or a king came it would reduce your outs. I think of these as "semi kill" cards.
In this case you would win the hand on the following percentages
6/45 (odds of getting a straight that isnt also a flush for your opponent) * (44-9)/44
(45-9 is the number of cards that WONT give your opponent a flush on the river)
+
6/45 (odds of getting a pair)*(44-9-6)/44 (this is the chance of your opponent NOT gettting a flush or a higher pair)
+
6/45 (your opponent getting a pair) *(6/44 (you getting a straight)
+
17/45 (cards that do not give your opponent a straight and are not covered above) *
12/44 (chances of you getting 1 pair or a straight)
Note that a diamond on the flop is a kill card.
This comes to .106+.088+.018+.103= .315 or 31.5% AFTER rounding. Clearly you would not do this in a game but thats why its worth being able to do rough calculations and also why its worth remembering odds tables etc.
Why odds are often NOT the only factor
So often odds are not the only factor in a hand. Reads are also important as are implied odds, advertising plays and bluffing oppertunities. All these areas will be explained below.
Reads
Many of you who do not like maths will have a bit of a sore head by now. You can relax now though in the knowledge that much of the maths is over. Some people say that NL holdem is all about odds but its really all about reads.
Example:-
If you hold ackc on a flop of 4c4d5c there is 400 in the pot and your opponent goes all in for 700 chips (you have him covered easily). Should you call? What are your pot odds? It is clear that you need more information before it would be possible to calculate pot odds. The real question you need to ask is "what does he have?". If he has 44 then you have ZERO odds for a call, if he has 55 you have terrible odds for a call but if he has 6h7h then you have GREAT odds for a call. Reads are far more important here than odds. You will find yourself sometimes doing percentage plays ie (50% of the time he has x, 20%y and 30%z) and then tie these into pot odds. It is however clear that this situation is more about reads and experience than actually about pot odds.
Another example of a percentage play is say your opponent goes all in in the small blind for 1000 and the blinds are 200 and 400. It is costing you 600 to call. You have 64os should you call? If you take the range of hands he will make this play on and then look at your chances you might well see that you can expect to be arround 30-40% to win the hand depending on his holdings. If he has 66 or a higher pair your odds will be less but overall (say he has k5) you will often be arround a 37% chance to win the hand with a few split pots there. You will see that you need at least 30% to get paid off (600/2000) and you will see that you probably have that so you have odds for a call. This doesnt mean you should neccisarily call. You might get better oppertunities later if you fold but a call has clear odds to justify it.
When you and your opponent are not all in
The other situations deal with the position that your opponent and yourself are not all in. This is actually the most common situation you will find yourself in. Say you have ax of hearts and the board is 2 hearts and a spade. Someone bets 200 into a pot of 250. Do you have "pot" odds to call. You have 1500 chips as does everyone else. Well you do not have simple pot odds to call IF you READ your opponent as having a pair. Say you will be ahead on the turn if you get either an ace (3 cards) or a heart (9 cards). You have 12/47 (you dont know what he has so you cannot use 45). Anyway you will see that you do not have simple pot odds.
Does that mean you should fold here? The answer is not neccisarily. If you get a heart on the turn you and you bet and get called then as well as the 250 and your opponents 200 you are winning what you get for the extra bet. Similarly if the action goes...
bet 200 on flop (you call everyone else fold)
turn 9s
bet 200 (you call)
river is a heart
then you will get extra cash for a bet
there is also the chance that he will just check the turn.
With implied odds much depends of your read on your opponents. There are some people who will not call ANY bet if the turn is a heart here. There are others who will call on top pair for all there chips. You have much better implied odds against the passive player who calls and the aggressive player who bets here than you do against the person who checks and folds.
As well as that there is also the possibility that you can bluff your way out of the hand if you do not hit. This can be a risky play because it is done so often that people are often sharp to it but it still needs to be mentioned. This can make some calls where you do not have implied or normal pot odds worth while. This can be particularly true when you have a flush draw on and there is a straight draw on the board. If you read your opponent as tight and put him on top pair then you can win when you catch your flush or when a straight appears on as you can REPRESENT the straight as well.
Remember that your odds are different when you bet than when you call because there is a chance that your opponent will fold. If you bet on something that you will win 1 in three (a flush draw) and get called you will win 1 in 3 but you will also win the times that your opponent folds their middle pair or top pair with a poor kicker. What this means is that you might win 400 chips 40% of the time and the 60% you get called you might win 2000 chips one time in three.