Suckout King
04-04-2006, 09:33 AM
Say you have 1500 chips, Mr A raises to 50, you call to the flop with ah4h with Mr B. The flop comes 8h2hJs.
There is 180 chips in the pot Mr A bets 200 chips Mr B folds should you call? This is precisely the sort of situation I am talking about in this thread. Firstly lets look and see if you have simple pot odds to call?
Ok so what happens if you call the 200 bet? Lets first look at the chances of you getting a flush on the turn? There are 9 hearts that you know about so that is 9 divided by 47 (52 cards less the 5 known cards) so you will catch a flush 9/47 or almost 20% of the time. If you multiply this number by the size of the pot (180+200+your200) you see that calling 200 chips is worth only 111 chips if ALL we look at is simple pot odds AND you need a flush to win the hand.
So do you have simple pot odds to call? Well it depends what you think he has does he have
a) nothing (i.e. a bluff) or a draw (semi bluff)
b) top pair with a good kicker (such as an ace) or an overpair
c) two pair or three of a kind
If you are confident he could have nothing then you MIGHT have pot odds for the call. This however seems unlikely. Also if he has 2 pair OR three of a kind then there is the chance that he will get a full house or quads on the river IF you catch a flush. Note though that it is almost impossible on this flop for the same card to give you a flush and him Quads or a Full house (only one card will do it).
Anyway back to the possibility that he is bluffing or has at best one pair then an ace would also win the hand for you. This would give you three additional outs BUT still not enough for simple pot odds for the call UNLESS there is a good chance he is bluffing and Ace high currently ahead. If that is the case then you might have simple pot odds for the call. However unless you have good reads to suggest that you do have simple pot odds for the call does that mean you should fold?
The answer is not necessarily so. Three other key factors come into the equation:-
a) IMPLIED ODDS
b) The possibility of you REPRESENTING a hand on the turn or after
c) The possibility of you seeing the river card at a discount
a) IMPLIED ODDS
What are implied odds? The idea is that you will get extra chips than those that are currently in the pot if you call now and get the best hand. Say you catch a flush on the turn and Mr A bets 200 chips again – not only will you call BUT you will get the opportunity to re-raise him to get extra chips of him on the turn AND the ability to bet, call and possibly re-raise him on the river. So what are these implied odds worth then? Some players will not bet on a board with top pair etc if they think their opponent has caught a flush others will. You might have specific reads on Mr A that tell you what kind of player he is. The sort of player that would bet on a heart here is going to be the kind of player who would give you comfortable IMPLIED ODDS for a call. Say he bets 200 on the turn (flush on) and you re-raise him 200 which he calls. He doesn’t then bet on the river and you bet 200 which he calls. From this hand you have got an additional 600 of his chips. True there may have been a chance of him having caught a full house or quads on the river however if we ignore that for the moment and assume that if you didn’t catch the flush on the turn you would have folded the call on the flop which cost you 200 chips will earn you 400+180+600 when you get the flush AND get action on the turn and river. The call of 200 was worth almost 225 chips.
b) Representing
As well as implied odds there is also the chance of you representing a hand and getting MR A to fold. Say the right card comes you could also represent a straight or a higher pair or trips etc IF you sense weakness from Mr A. Not everyone is comfortable with this style of play and used wrongly you will exit lots of tournaments looking pretty stupid but it does have a certain value.
c) You might see the river at a discount. Lets say Mr A only has top pair and is worried that you might have him beat and just checks the turn (not a heart). Rather than betting you could check and get to see the river for free. Then the call of 200 was worth 203 chips – more or less worth the call. This however will not be that common. If he only bets 200 again though then your call for 200 is worth 192 chips BEFORE implied odds for betting on the river.
When you put all of these together you can see that whilst calling doesn’t have simple pot odds by the time you factor in implied odds and other factors calling could be considered a legitimate play.
Does that mean I should call then? This is a matter of choice as far as I am concerned but does depend on your reads of Mr A. If you lose your 200 chips (or 400 if you then call on the turn) you will have fewer chips than you started the hand much of the time. You may decide that the increase in your chips stack is not worth the risk. If however you were playing a cash game AND Mr A was the kind of player who would still get involved in some betting/calling if a heart came then very probably this is a hand that you should be calling. If the bet had only been 100 chips say then calling would certainly be what I would recommend even in a tournament.
Anyway I hope this has explained implied odds to you and also given you a chance to see how you rarely can look at pot odds in isolation in tournament play. Look at my Pot odds for tourney play post if you want to get more of an idea as to how to apply pot odds in specifically tournament situations.
There is 180 chips in the pot Mr A bets 200 chips Mr B folds should you call? This is precisely the sort of situation I am talking about in this thread. Firstly lets look and see if you have simple pot odds to call?
Ok so what happens if you call the 200 bet? Lets first look at the chances of you getting a flush on the turn? There are 9 hearts that you know about so that is 9 divided by 47 (52 cards less the 5 known cards) so you will catch a flush 9/47 or almost 20% of the time. If you multiply this number by the size of the pot (180+200+your200) you see that calling 200 chips is worth only 111 chips if ALL we look at is simple pot odds AND you need a flush to win the hand.
So do you have simple pot odds to call? Well it depends what you think he has does he have
a) nothing (i.e. a bluff) or a draw (semi bluff)
b) top pair with a good kicker (such as an ace) or an overpair
c) two pair or three of a kind
If you are confident he could have nothing then you MIGHT have pot odds for the call. This however seems unlikely. Also if he has 2 pair OR three of a kind then there is the chance that he will get a full house or quads on the river IF you catch a flush. Note though that it is almost impossible on this flop for the same card to give you a flush and him Quads or a Full house (only one card will do it).
Anyway back to the possibility that he is bluffing or has at best one pair then an ace would also win the hand for you. This would give you three additional outs BUT still not enough for simple pot odds for the call UNLESS there is a good chance he is bluffing and Ace high currently ahead. If that is the case then you might have simple pot odds for the call. However unless you have good reads to suggest that you do have simple pot odds for the call does that mean you should fold?
The answer is not necessarily so. Three other key factors come into the equation:-
a) IMPLIED ODDS
b) The possibility of you REPRESENTING a hand on the turn or after
c) The possibility of you seeing the river card at a discount
a) IMPLIED ODDS
What are implied odds? The idea is that you will get extra chips than those that are currently in the pot if you call now and get the best hand. Say you catch a flush on the turn and Mr A bets 200 chips again – not only will you call BUT you will get the opportunity to re-raise him to get extra chips of him on the turn AND the ability to bet, call and possibly re-raise him on the river. So what are these implied odds worth then? Some players will not bet on a board with top pair etc if they think their opponent has caught a flush others will. You might have specific reads on Mr A that tell you what kind of player he is. The sort of player that would bet on a heart here is going to be the kind of player who would give you comfortable IMPLIED ODDS for a call. Say he bets 200 on the turn (flush on) and you re-raise him 200 which he calls. He doesn’t then bet on the river and you bet 200 which he calls. From this hand you have got an additional 600 of his chips. True there may have been a chance of him having caught a full house or quads on the river however if we ignore that for the moment and assume that if you didn’t catch the flush on the turn you would have folded the call on the flop which cost you 200 chips will earn you 400+180+600 when you get the flush AND get action on the turn and river. The call of 200 was worth almost 225 chips.
b) Representing
As well as implied odds there is also the chance of you representing a hand and getting MR A to fold. Say the right card comes you could also represent a straight or a higher pair or trips etc IF you sense weakness from Mr A. Not everyone is comfortable with this style of play and used wrongly you will exit lots of tournaments looking pretty stupid but it does have a certain value.
c) You might see the river at a discount. Lets say Mr A only has top pair and is worried that you might have him beat and just checks the turn (not a heart). Rather than betting you could check and get to see the river for free. Then the call of 200 was worth 203 chips – more or less worth the call. This however will not be that common. If he only bets 200 again though then your call for 200 is worth 192 chips BEFORE implied odds for betting on the river.
When you put all of these together you can see that whilst calling doesn’t have simple pot odds by the time you factor in implied odds and other factors calling could be considered a legitimate play.
Does that mean I should call then? This is a matter of choice as far as I am concerned but does depend on your reads of Mr A. If you lose your 200 chips (or 400 if you then call on the turn) you will have fewer chips than you started the hand much of the time. You may decide that the increase in your chips stack is not worth the risk. If however you were playing a cash game AND Mr A was the kind of player who would still get involved in some betting/calling if a heart came then very probably this is a hand that you should be calling. If the bet had only been 100 chips say then calling would certainly be what I would recommend even in a tournament.
Anyway I hope this has explained implied odds to you and also given you a chance to see how you rarely can look at pot odds in isolation in tournament play. Look at my Pot odds for tourney play post if you want to get more of an idea as to how to apply pot odds in specifically tournament situations.